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Tony D'Onofrio
Retail Violence in Australia, UK, and USA: An Alarming Growing Concern
Retail violence is becoming an alarming trend across Australia, the United Kingdom, and the United States, posing significant challenges for businesses, employees, and consumers alike. Reports indicate a sharp rise in incidents ranging from verbal abuse and shoplifting-related aggression to physical assaults on retail staff. This escalation is driven by multiple factors, including economic pressures, organized retail crime, and shifting societal attitudes toward theft and confrontation.
These trends were confirmed at the Sydney Retail Risk Conference after my "Disruptive Future of Retail" keynote delivery. The opening picture of this post is from that retailer engaging session. This is actually the exact moment in the presentation where I was describing to the Australian audience the retail violence trends in the United States and United Kingdom. The subsequent discussions with the local retailers inspired this new blog.
For consumers, the surge in retail violence has far-reaching consequences. Increased security measures, staff shortages due to safety concerns, and higher operational costs often translate to longer wait times, restricted store access, and rising prices. Moreover, the growing unpredictability of retail environments erodes shoppers' sense of safety, discouraging in-person visits and reshaping the retail landscape.
This article explores the trends behind rising retail violence in these three nations, examining the technology preferences in each of the countries. It concludes with some of my own thoughts on how we solve these growing and alarming retail crime problems.
Australia Retail Crime Up 40% Over Last Two Years
Retail in Flux: Navigating Disruption, Consolidation, Technology Priorities and Theft
The retail industry is undergoing a seismic transformation, driven by a confluence of forces reshaping the way businesses operate and consumers shop. From the rapid consolidation of major players to the disruptive impact of e-commerce and emerging technologies, the sector is in a state of flux. At the same time, retailers are grappling with rising security concerns, as organized retail theft and shrinkage reach unprecedented levels.
As companies race to adapt, they face a delicate balancing act—investing in cutting-edge technology to enhance customer experiences and operational efficiency while addressing the financial and logistical challenges posed by theft and competition. Artificial intelligence, automation, and data analytics are emerging as critical tools, but will they be enough to safeguard profitability and sustainability in an increasingly volatile market?
The last few weeks have been filled with meetings with many global retailers across multiple continents. Cultures may be different, but the formula to delight and engage consumers with differentiated branding strategies is similar across the world.
Part of this latest global retail inspirational journey includes delivering my keynote on "The Disruptive Future of Retail." This article summarizes some of my favorite new insights on the changing retail landscape, retail concentration & disruption, technology priorities, and the opposing retail theft innovation forces.
The Ever-Changing Retail Landscape
The Top 5 Takeaways from the NRF 2025 Retail Big Show
"2025 will be the year where science fiction becomes a shopping reality. From AI-enabled hyper-personalized experiences to the rise of responsive ads via retail media networks to next-gen supply chain automation, the retail industry is transforming on all fronts." - Capgemini
What an exhausting, exciting, inspiring, highly motivating week in New York on the annual pilgrimage to the National Retail Federation retail Big Show to experience the future of retail. For the week, logged nearly 100,000 steps or 42 miles (67.5 Km) in visiting stores, engaging retailers, walking the show floor, meeting analysts, and showcasing new innovations for Sensormatic.
On stage in a Sensormatic sponsored event with the retailer PVH, in my opening comments, I congratulated the audience for working in one of the most vibrant industries in the world. In 2025, the global retail industry will reach nearly $33 trillion, growing at roughly 4% per year through 2026.
By 2026, 76% of total global retail sales will still be physical stores. The growth gap for online sales and stores is narrowing. Growing middle classes in large economies and emerging countries will keep the industry thriving for many years to the come.
This article summarizes my top 5 data supported takeaways from the 2025 edition of the Retail Big Show. One of these trends offers a counter view that needs to be addressed to keep the retail industry positively moving forward. All the quotes cited in this article are directly from attendees or from articles published the same week.
Where Tech and Tears Meet
The Top 5 for 2025 Retail Disruptive Predictions
In a year where consumers still fretted about inflation, Santa Claus delivered a solid holiday shopping season. According to a Mastercard Spending Pulse report, total spending this holiday season increased 3.8% over 2023, surpassing the previously forecasted rise of 3.2% and beating last year's increase of 3.1%. For the shopping period between November 1 to December 24, online grew 6.7% while in-store sales grew 2.9%.
On some levels, 2024 was a challenging year for the USA retail industry. According to Coresight, through November 2024, retailers were projected to close over 7,100 stores, a 69% increase over the same period in 2023. Somewhat surprisingly, the top 5 retail chains with the highest number of physical stores closures were Family Dollar, CVS Health, Big Lots, Conn's, and Rue21.
The mixed results fulfill the prophecy by the Economic Intelligence Unit which in 2024 forecast offline retail as cloudy, online retail as stormy, food as cloudy, and non-food also stormy. In December 2024, three other major chains announced either bankruptcy proceedings or liquidation sales: The Container Store, Big Lots, and Party City.
Is another retail apocalypse for physical stores in the 2025 retail horizon? What are the latest growth forecasts for global retail in 2025? What are the top 5 disruptive retail predictions for 2025?
The 2025 Global Retail Forecasts
The "One Word" that Will Make a Positive Difference This and Every Holiday Season
"Learn from yesterday, live for today, hope for tomorrow. The important thing is not to stop questioning." - Albert Einstein
The December holiday season is my favorite time of the year. As I write this, my wife is busily decorating the house. The Christmas trees and decorations are shimmering in multiple of the rooms. The New England winter village brings memories of the past. The nativity scene harks back to long established traditions of my native Italy. Throughout the day, my children and their mom are having whispering conversations on appropriate gifts for the family. Everyone becomes an arbiter in brokering gift lists that will make that Christmas Day very special.
The 31 days that make the month of December includes the Winter Solstice, the shortest day of the year, after which the days get progressively longer. The end of the month is packed with celebrations such as Christmas Eve, Christmas Day, Hanukkah, Kwanzaa, and New Year's Eve.
The etymology of the month December indicates that it is formed from the Latin root decem, which means ten. How does this make sense in our 12th month? The ancient Roman calendar originally only had 10 months, beginning with the month of March. "January and February were eventually added after December to the end of the year. But, by the time the Julian Calendar was established in 45 BCE, January and February appeared at the beginning of the year, which bumped all of the original months (and their originally assigned names) back by two."
Why is December my favorite time of the year? What one word comes to mind as the holidays approach? How can one word foreshadow a brighter future?
The Greatest Gifts in Life
Retail Media Networks Set to Forever Transform Loyalty and Consumer Engagements
Today's world is media noisy, but much of the messaging is broadly delivered with minimal impact. Television and newspapers were primary historical mediums for delivering product knowledge, differentiation, and building consumer loyalty.
The average human attention span has dropped from 12 seconds in 2000 to a just 8 seconds in 2020. A goldfish now has a higher span that a human at 9 seconds.
The internet has intensified the media noise. Globally, individuals between the age of 16 to 64 now spend an average six hours, 40 minutes online (for the United States is 7 hours and 3 minutes). This equates to 47 hours per week and 101 days per year. By this estimation, beginning at age 18, a person who lives to 80 will have spent 17 years of their adult life using the internet.
The increased online digital noise is changing viewer habits of traditional media such as television. Note the decline in daily viewing time with digital surpassing traditional television in 2022.
Younger generations are accelerating the shift to digital. About 1 out of 6 Millennials said they did not watch any original TV series from traditional TV sets within the past 30 days, a significant trend highlighting the potential for linear TV viewing to erode over time. If young people do watch television, it is on other digital devices, often skipping the commercials.
In the 1970's, the average person was exposed to 500 to 1,600 ads per day. The changes in media consumption including the proliferation of digital devices, growth of social media, programmatic advertising, and content distribution have dramatically elevated the ad numbers 4,000 to 10,000 per day.
Focusing on the retail industry, how does one break through all this digital noise and deliver effective content? Where is the best place to increase attention spans for targeted ads for the consumer? What is the profitable future of retail media networks?
The Retail Media Networks Opportunity
Bah Humbug Predictions: Tis the Season to be Shopping
It is beginning to look a lot like Christmas, everywhere you go. With decorations now appearing in stores as early as August, reminders are everywhere on the continued importance of each holiday shopping season.
Some statistics on the importance of retail, the holiday season,and the impact on the overall USA economy:
- Roughly 70% of U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) is generated by consumer spending.
- Holiday sales in the months of November and December have averaged 19% of total annual retail sales over the last five years.
- In 2023, USA retailers hired between 345,000 to 450,000 holiday seasonal workers.
- 75% of retail small businesses rely heavily on holiday sales to meet their annual revenue goals.
It is time to summarize multiple of my favorite retail holiday forecasts For 2024, most of these project lower historical retail sales growth, even as the September's job report continued to deliver positive economic surprises.
Global Consumers Are Feeling the Pinch
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It is a Small World
Continuing our journey to learn something new, we travel to the War Rooms Museum in London England. The Churchill War Rooms is a secret underground headquarters which offers a fascinating glimpse into Britain's wartime operations, featuring the Map Room, Cabinet Room, and Churchill's office, all preserved as they were on the day the lights went out in 1945.
In the underground Cabinet Room Churchill and his key ministers and advisers would meet with the Chiefs of Staff to make important decisions about the course of World War II. Churchill was known to push his military chiefs far beyond their comfort zones, so it was likely to be a place of tension and confrontation.
The War Rooms were a top-secret location, with strict security measures and a focus on maintaining confidentiality, even down to the typewriters being noiseless. A tiny room disguised as a toilet was used for secret conversations between Churchill and the US President.
You can find some poignant graffiti, including a hand-drawn image of Adolf Hitler, in the Chief of Staff meeting room. To alleviate the health problems associated with working underground for prolonged periods of time, staff had to strip to their underwear, put on protective goggles and stand in front of portable sun lamps.
Churchill’s leadership lessons emphasize unwavering resolve, inspiring communication, and the importance of character and conviction, particularly during times of crisis. Visiting his War Rooms was inspirational.
As he also famously said, “a pessimist sees the difficulty in every opportunity; an optimist sees the opportunity in every difficulty.” My glass for visualizing success has always been half-full. What you visualize and action through continuous learning is what you will ultimately achieve. Believe in yourself and your dreams. Failure is never final. Reset, keep calm, and always carry on.
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Brilliant Research
US Tariffs: What's the impact on global trade and the economy?
J.P. Morgan Research has lowered its estimate for 2025 real GDP growth due to heightened trade policy uncertainty, the effect of existing tariffs and retaliatory measures by foreign trading partners. Real GDP growth is now expected to be 1.6% for the year, down 0.3% from previous estimates. - J.P. Morgan Read more
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