Loss Prevention Research Council Weekly Series - Episode 77 - Most trusted people and retail holiday forecasts
The Lost Months of the Coronavirus Pandemic
https://www.statista.com/chart/26023/areas-with-the-longest-cumulative-pandemic-lockdowns/
According to Statista, here are the top 5 areas of the world with the longest cumulative lockdowns in days. Melbourne Australia leads with 262 days. Greater Buenos Aires in Argentina is next at 245 days. Ireland follows with 227 days. Northern Ireland at 223 days. England at 213 days.
The Most and Least Trusted People in the World
https://www.statista.com/chart/26000/most-least-trusted-people-global/
According to Statista, the top 5 most trusted groups of people of 2021 are Doctors (54%), Scientists (51%), Teachers (43%), Ordinary People (27%), and Armed Forces (22%). Top 5 least trusted are journalists (10%), bankers (11%), ad execs (22%), government ministers (39%), and politicians generally (52%)
Deloitte: 75% of shoppers are worried about stockouts this year
https://www.retaildive.com/news/deloitte-75-of-shoppers-are-worried-about-stockouts-this-year/608655/
- As supply chain bottlenecks continue to haunt retailers, three-fourths of consumers are worried about products running out of stock, prompting them to make their holiday purchases earlier this year, according to a new Deloitte report. Six in 10 retail executives are also worried about receiving holiday orders on time.
- The Deloitte report predicts that holiday spending will increase by 5% from last year to $1,463 per household on average. While higher-income households plan to spend an average of $2,624 per household, lower-income households expect to spend less than last year, at $536.
- According to the report, 40% of shoppers remain anxious about shopping in stores, down from 51% in 2020. Even with more comfortability shopping in stores, consumers expect to spend $924 online, an increase from $892 last year.
Will Santa Claus or the Grinch Show up this Holiday Season?
https://www.tonydonofrio.com/blog/retail/will-santa-claus-or-the-grinch-show-up-this-holiday-season.html
From my latest article here is a summary of the latest retail holiday forecasts.
Globally, Salesforce is predicting 7% growth in digital commerce for November and December (slowing dramatically from 50% YOY growth in 2020). For the USA, digital growth is project at 10% in 2021, slowing down from 43% YOY growth in 2020. Note the headwind in rising consumer prices driving some of the 2021 growth. Salesforce predicts -2% global holiday orders with USA at -4%.
Deloitte forecasts an increase between 7% to 9% with holiday sales totaling $1.28 to $1.3 trillion during the November to January timeframe. E-commerce sales are projected to grow 11-15% in the same period.
Bain also predicts an increase of 7% in USA this holiday season, the second highest growth rate in more than 20 years.
Interesting is the changing mix between 2020 (the highest growth year in 20+ years) and 2021. in 2020, of the 8.6% growth, 5.3% was from e-commerce and 3.3% was from physical stores. The opposite is expected for 2021 with 5% of the growth coming from physical stores and 2% from ecommerce.
Bain projects total holiday spending to reach $800 billion in 2021 with 75% of that volume being fulfilled in physical stores. Tailwinds driving this positive forecast include inflation rates, employment levels, wage growth, savings & credit availability, and pent-up demand in some categories. Potential headwinds that may slow down sales include product availability, labor supply, non-retail spending, YOY comparable retail sales, and a COVID-19 fourth wave.
Good news as robust spending is expected in pandemic hard hit categories such as apparel and accessories. Same is expected in appliances and electronics, although supply chain challenges will slow their sales growth. Transitioning to growth patterns consistent with pre-pandemic historical trends are food & beverage and DIY.
Although I am cheering for above forecasts for this coming holiday season, more recent data points to substantial headwinds that will slow down growth. The IHL Group lowered their forecast across the 13 retail segments that they track to +5-6%. "And it’s important to realize that this still is a historically great for holiday sales increases by comparison. But we believe 3% growth in the other forecasts will be left on the table due to mandates, unemployment increases and shortages of product and labor as they ripple through the industry."
Scarcity seems to be the operative word as we get closer to the holiday season. Computer chips which are ubiquitous to our lives and to our most coveted Christmas presents are expected according to Forrester to be in short supply until 2023. Costco has once again started rationing toilet paper. In the USA, the price of gasoline advanced 42.1% in the 12 months ended September.
It's not the end of the world. Retail sales will be strong this year globally, but will be impacted by rising prices and shortages. All the data once again confirms that physical stores are alive and well and will play a key role in the future of retail. We are emerging out of pandemic, but it will take more time.
Santa Claus will still arrive this year, provided you shopped early for your special holiday gifts. The Grinch will continue to be with us and will find unexpected ways to slow down the continued global recovery.
