Loss Prevention Research Council Weekly Series - Episode 61 - How to end the pandemic and the future of retail computer vision
With Dr. Read Hayes, Tony D'Onofrio, and Tom Meehan
How to end the global pandemic in 2022?
https://media-publications.bcg.com/BCG-Executive-Perspectives-Vaccine-Equity.pdf
From the Boston Consulting Group Executive Perspectives Series.
Their view is the COVID-19 recovery will be driven by disease progression, de-averaged economic impact, government policies, and business and public responses.
There is a 100x+ discrepancy in vaccination rates between high and low income countries.
There are 2.7 billion people in countries where it will take several years to finish initial round of vaccination which can lead to new variants.
As an example on how fast variants can spread, it took less that six months for variant B.1.1.7 to spread from one country to 120 countries. We are in a race globally to minimize variants.
Cases are still high around the world even as vaccine rollout is underway; resurgence in countries like India have had devastating impacts.
Based on current plans, it will take until 2024 to emerge fully from the pandemic, as some lower income countries are severely behind in vaccinations.
The irony is that vaccine supply is expected to surpass the global population requirements in 2021, but distributing it to all countries remains a challenge.
There is also the challenge of vaccine hesitancy which remains high in multiple countries. In France its 41%. Germany and Japan 26%, Russia it’s a very high 58% and in South Africa its 36%. Even in China vaccine hesitancy is 20%.
A lot more work to be done, especially in low income countries to get the pandemic under control.
Switching topics let’s look at How E-commerce will Conquer 2021 (and Beyond) and what are some of the barriers to continued growth. This data is from Raconteur.
https://res.cloudinary.com/yumyoshojin/image/upload/v1622123284/pdf/future-ecommerce-2021-infog.pdf
In the first quarter of 2021, digital commerce grew 58%.
A major challenge for digital commerce is that we have to wait for the goods versus the instant gratification of going to the store. Consumer hate to wait and the average time to wait is still high in most countries.
It was 2.55 days in UK in 2019 and 2.54 days in 2020. It was 3.35 days in USA in 2019 and 3.12 in 2020. It was 2.42 day in Germany in 2019 and 2.5 days in 2020. It’s coming down, but not fast enough to offset just going to the store.
Interesting on the concerns that consumers have with online fraud. 72% are worried where their personal data is being stored and who has access to it. 71% concerned that website may not have adequate security measures. 60% unsure who would be held accountable if fraud occurred.
The Top 5 reasons global internet uses bought products online in 2020 include: 53% free delivery, 41% coupons and discounts, 35% reviews by other customers, 33% clear return policy, 20% easy online checkout process.
Visualizing a more profitable computer vision future of retail
Visualizing a More Profitable Computer Vision Future of Retail - Tony D'Onofrio (tonydonofrio.com)
This article was inspired by a couple of things: 1) Spending quality times with a leading computer vision company that is incidentally an active member of LPRC. I have been lucky enough to see the transformation from a single application to a portfolio of retail visual innovative disruptive solutions; 2) Recalling the Hype Cycle for Artificial intelligence 2020 from Gartner. Gartner has Computer Vision in the ‘Trough of Disillusionment’ reaching the ‘Plateau of Productivity’ of explosive in 2 to 5 years. Based on my retail industry observations over the last several months and this past week, powerful computer vision solutions are arriving much sooner to a store near you.
In 2021, the major milestone of over 1 billion CCTV cameras installed around the world will be reached. What started as a security technology to prevent crime, the video camera is now a major visual data gathering device that will transform all industries including retail.
As I said in the blog, the current highest value applications for computer vision in retail are in inventory visibility, cashier less stores, and merchandising. The costliest to implement right now are cashier less stores. The easiest to implement is inventory visibility.
The global computer vision market is expected to grow from $2.9 billion in 2018 to over $33 billion by 2025. According to a just published RIS News report, 10% of retailers have started a major upgrade of their computer vision solutions and nearly 17% more will deploy the technology in the next 12 to 24 months.
Visual artificial intelligence has arrived to secure the self-checkout process. New solutions are also emerging to replace the barcode with visual product identification engines. In the article you can see a video example of this.
We can’t discuss the future of self-checkout without mentioning Amazon Go, We are now reaching 30 of these fully automated stores that are open in the United States.
In addition to self-checkout, today’s consumers also expect accurate information about product availability as they browse a store. Sixty-four percent of retailers are looking to deploy data-driven solutions like computer vision in the next two years to optimize inventory.
Studies show that shoppers encounter out-of-stocks every 1 in 3 shopping trips, costing $1 trillion in annual sales. Getting inventory accuracy right is a must in the evolving omnichannel world where the store is also a fulfillment center.
Because computer vision essentially gives a computer “eyes,” there is huge potential for its application in retail loss prevention. Computer vision uses machine learning algorithms to observe people’s behavior, identify patterns, then make decisions based on this information. One of the most commonly imagined applications of computer vision in loss prevention is to use this technology to detect suspicious behavior associated with thieves. Again, checkout the video example in the article.
In summary, shoppers are demanding increased convenience, more efficient store layouts, and frictionless checkouts. Consumer journeys need to be re-designed through emerging computer vision solutions to meet the ‘new normal’ across harmonious retail channels.
While many emerging technologies still remain on the horizon, computer vision isn’t just a concept for the distant future anymore. Its current applications in retail show that this technology can transform the customer experience while optimizing retail operations in multiple areas, including inventory management, loss prevention, marketing, store layouts, and much more.
Welcome to a more profitable computer vision optimized future of retail. And the LPRC is a great place to observe and more importantly participate in creating that profitable future of computer vision in retail.
