Loss Prevention Research Council Weekly Series - Episode 56 - Countries leading vaccinations and Consumers Are BACK
With Dr. Read Hayes, Tony D'Onofrio, and Tom Meehan
5 Law Enforcement Officers Died From COVID-19 in April
119 Law Enforcement Officers Died in Line of Duty in 2021 So Far
- Up 20% over 2020
https://www.odmp.org/search/year/2021
Through April, largest category is COVID-19 with 63 deaths followed by gunfire with 19 deaths. The average age was 50 and the average tour of duty was just over 19 years.
Sobering statistics in these challenging pandemic times.
The Race Towards Full Vaccination
https://www.statista.com/chart/24663/share-of-the-population-fully-vaccinated-against-covid-19/
The global race towards vaccination. As of May 1, the five countries leading with full vaccination of their population are Israel at 59%, Chile at 35%, Bahrain at 32%, USA at 31%, and UK and Serbia at 22%.
Amazon quarterly results
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/29/amazon-amzn-earnings-q1-2021.html
Sales soaring 44% year over year to $108.5 billion.
Amazon’s guidance for the second quarter implies that it expects the momentum to continue.
Amazon Web Services saw net sales of $13.5 billion during the quarter, up 32% year over year. Amazon doesn’t disclose advertising sales, but it’s included in the company’s “Other” category, which saw its revenue grow 77% year over year to $6.9 billion.
As Prime Video turns 10, over 175 million Prime members have streamed shows and movies in the past year, and streaming hours are up more than 70% year over year
Company now has 200 million Prime subscribers, 50 million more than it had at the start of 2020
During the quarter, Amazon’s sales grew faster internationally than they did in North America. International revenue surged 60% year over year, more than any other segment, while North America revenue climbed 40%.
Big Tech Profits Soars on Pandemic Boost.
https://www.statista.com/chart/24775/gafam-net-income/
The pandemic has been good for the biggest USA tech companies: Apple profits are up 110% on last year to nearly 24 billion dollars, Alphabet Google profits are up 162% to 18 billion dollars, Microsoft profits are up 44% to over 15 billion dollars, Facebook profits are up 94% to over 9 billion dollars, and Amazon profits are up 220% to over 8 billion dollars.
When Will Retail Recover? - GLOBAL CONSUMER RESEARCH STUDY ON AMOUNT, TIMING OF SPEND FOR RETAIL, RESTAURANTS, TRAVEL, AND HOSPITALITY
https://www.ihlservices.com/product/when-will-retail-recover-the-consumers-voice/
While the US is ready to boom 12 months post COVID, the rest of the world is 3-12 months behind in recovery according to our recent consumer study. I would add that China is ahead of the USA in recovery. China's economy grew a record 18.3% in the first quarter of 2021 compared to the same quarter last year. It's the biggest jump in gross domestic product (GDP) since China started keeping quarterly records in 1992.
There are 4 countries that stand above all others in terms of their populations being vaccinated. These are Israel, UK, Chile, and the US.
From March 2020 to March 2021 the higher incomes had not kept up spending to previous levels through the pandemic while the middle and lower incomes have kept spending close to previous levels due to stimulus payments. This is about to change in a big way. Call it revenge buying, pent-up demand, or just “get out and spend”, but the US consumer is ready to spend, and spend not just in essential categories but discretionary categories.
There is great demand for eating out that might surpass the availability of restaurants to meet demand. Nations Restaurant News suggests up to 30% of the nation’s restaurants have closed permanently in some regions due to COVID-19 restrictions. Lower unemployment rates will also make it difficult to find workers. So, prepare for lines or open up that restaurant! Further, households with incomes over $50,000 are planning to increase budgets significantly higher for dining/entertainment/travel. So, get those airline tickets now before prices rise even further.
Finally, we believe the clothing numbers are understated. As people go out for entertainment and travel, new clothes will be purchased. And by Fall it is expected that all schools and universities will be back to in-person teaching, so expect a strong back-to-school clothes shopping season.
Across the board in every region, it is expected that the budget will increase for the store for essentials. The greatest growth by far is North America where the percentage of budget that is instore rises from 61% to 69% in the next 12 months. This is 13.6% increase. The rest of the world changes is a bit more modest: 6.4% growth in budget allocation for Latin/South America, 5.6% for EMEA, and 5.5% for Asia/Pacific.
Worldwide, the retainment of budget for digital orders for essentials like grocery and HBC is 91%, not the 35-45% we had been projecting. So clearly the investments retailers continue to make in improving the experience and lowering costs should provide dividends going forward.
For March 2021 versus March 2020 last year USA retail sales were down 10% in food, up 8% in drug, up 8% for mass merchandisers, up 31% for department stores, up 105% for specialty soft goods, up 38% for specialty hard goods, up 36% for convenience, up 35% for restaurants. Overall, for the month, March 2021 were up 21% on last year. Off to a solid post pandemic world for retail.
