Loss Prevention Research Council Weekly Series - Episode 37 - IDC 2021 Retail Predictions and WSJ 2020 Retail Review
With Dr. Read Hayes, Tony D'Onofrio, Tom Meehan, and special guest Leslie Hand, Group VP IDC Retail Insights
Four IDC Worldwide 2021 Retail Predictions discussed
Number 3: By 2023, 80% of retailers will offer contactless payments and app based scan-and-go pay systems in storre, increasing conversion rates by 40% and customer retention by 30%.
Number 6: By 2023, following early experiments, retailers will accelerate intelligence capabilities by acquiring AI technology vendors for their own competitive intelligence, driving 5% to 10% growth.
Number 8: By 2023, 75% of grocery ecommerce orders (which represent 15% of sales) will be picked up at curbside or in store, driving a 35% increase in investment in onsite or nearby micro-fulfillment centers.
Number 9: By 2023, the COVID-19 related intersection of safety and security will drive shared retailer funding and a 30% lift in spending across computer vision, biometrics, and enhanced video surveillance.
Wall Street Journal 2020 retail year in review: Thru first 10 months retail sales, excluding gas, auto and food services are up 6.4%. Oddly 2020 coud turn out to be one of the best years in the overall retail sector in 20 years. More than 27 retailers filed for bankruptcy in the first nine months. Before Coronavirus 15% of sales were online, spike to 20% in April, settled at 16% in the three months ended in September.
Key trends for 2020 and beyond:
1) If Americans consumers have money, they will spend it. Christmas and 4th quarter should be strong. Season came early with 52% of shopping making holiday purchases before Thanksgiving.
2) Playing field in retail is rapidly changing. Convenience matters more than ever. Enclosed malls will dimish in importance shrinking 1800 to possibly 200 to 400 sustainable malls.
3) The brands we love are changing and the standard by which we judge them are evolving. Consumers are starting to consider where and how goods are made. Still don't believe for a minute that people will buy sustainable or politically correct products in lieu of ones that are priced affordably.
4) Technology continues to change nearly everything about the retail experience. Personalization and the ability to stimulate our interest via data and artificial intelligence will be startling. Retailers will know us better that our spouses and families. How products are sourced, produced, and distributed will be tracked. The merchant prince of the past must become the consumer insights leaders and data analysts of tomorrow. Livestreaming already popular in China will reach USA.
In the end retailers that will win are those that watch their pennies, focus on the customer, and build and sell great products that meet needs and fulfill aspirations.
On this week’s episode, our special guest Leslie Hand, Group Vice President for IDC Retail Insights, joins our co-hosts to discuss these predictions and much more, including computer vision, biometrics, enhanced video surveillance, COVID-19’s impact, Wall Street Journal’s retail trends, and the recent U.S. government hack.
As Group Vice President for IDC Retail Insights, Leslie Hand manages the retail research team for IDC Retail Insights and conducts research digital and contactless omnichannel retail technologies, given the threats and opportunities now facing the entire retail ecosystem from evolving consumer behaviors. Hand works with retailers and technology providers on developing best practices and strategies leveraging IDC quantitative and qualitative data sets.
Before joining IDC, Ms. Hand spent 28 years in the retail industry. As an analyst, Leslie has been widely acknowledged at the person that coined the term “omni-channel”.
