Loss Prevention Research Council Weekly Series - Episode 30 - Violent Crime Trends and Holiday Predictions
With Dr. Read Hayes, Tony D'Onofrio, and Tom Meehan
China retail sales up 3.3%. 52% of consumers have not been to a mall or department store since the pandemic started. On this week’s episode, our co-hosts discuss these topics and more, including election results preparation, state-sponsored cyberattacks, Twitter’s misinformation warnings, Antifa, violent crime trends, retail’s holiday season data, and increased shipping costs for retailers.
This past weekend 158 shootings and 45 deaths. Leading cities for shootings Chicago, New York, Milwaukee, Los Angeles, and Philadelphia. Leading cities for deaths Chicago, Detroit, Memphis, Houston, and Philadelphia.
Strong retail sales in September in China, up 3.3%, beating expectations of 1.6%. China returned to pre-COVID-19 growth levels in August. Thru August all three are above the 10 year average of 5.3%. Apparel is down 35% and electronics and appliances are down 17%.
47% of consumers will do most of their shopping online. 23% will do it at curbside or pickup. 52% have not been to a mall or department store since the start of the pandemic.
Salesforce.com reports that globally digital commerce will increase 30%, up from 8% in 2019. USA digital retail sales will be up 34%, up from 12% in 2019. The volume of packages worldwide will likely exceed 5% capacity in 2020, meaning 700 million gifts will be late. Retailers will also see $40 billion in shipping surcharges.
Bain projects 2% growth this holiday season in USA. Could be as high as 3.5%, the 10 year average, if a stimulus arrives from the goverment.
Amazon Prime Day kicked off season successfully in mid-October with estimated sales of $10.4 billion, up from $7.16 billion in 2019.
Digital Commerce 360 say 18% of consumers have already started shopping and another 50% will have it underway in early November. Stores will be important both as fulfillment centers and as inspiration location for present ideas. Winners will be those retailers with cross channel shopping channels in full gear.
Per Bacardi, 66% plan on celebrating with family and friends via video chats. 26% are staying home and going to bed early on New Year's Eve. 40% are secretly thrilled there are no office parties. 67% are buying a gift for themselves.
