Loss Prevention Research Council Weekly Series - Episode 174 - USA 2023 Crime Rates and Consumer AI Trends
With Dr. Read Hayes, Tony D'Onofrio, and Tom Meehan
Crime Trends in USA Cities: Year End Update 2023
https://counciloncj.org/year-end-2023-crime-trends/
Let me start with week with a new report from the Council on Criminal Justice on USA Crime Trends in selected cities, summarizing 2023.
This study updates and supplements previous U.S. crime trends reports by the Council on Criminal Justice (CCJ) with data through December 2023. It examines monthly rates at which 12 offenses are reported to law enforcement in 38 American cities. The 38 cities are not necessarily representative of all cities in the United States.
Summarizing some of the key data from 2023:
- The number of homicides in the 32 study cities providing homicide data was 10% lower—representing 515 fewer homicides—in 2023 than in 2022.
- Looking at other violent offenses, there were 3% fewer reported aggravated assaults in 2023 than in 2022 and 7% fewer gun assaults in 11 reporting cities. Reported carjacking incidents fell by 5% in 10 reporting cities but robberies and domestic violence incidents each rose 2%.
- Among property crimes, reports of residential burglaries (-3%), nonresidential burglaries (-7%), and larcenies (-4%) all decreased in 2023 compared to 2022. The number of drug offenses increased by 4% over the same period.
- Motor vehicle theft, a crime that has been on the rise since the summer of 2020, continued its upward trajectory through 2023. There were 29% more reported motor vehicle thefts in 2023 than in 2022.
- Most violent offenses remained elevated in 2023 compared to 2019, the year prior to the outbreak of COVID and the widespread social unrest of 2020. There were 18% more homicides in the study cities in 2023 than in 2019, and carjacking has spiked by 93% during that period.
- Property crime trends have been more mixed. There were fewer residential burglaries and larcenies and more nonresidential burglaries in 2023 than in 2019. Motor vehicle thefts more than doubled (+105%) during this timeframe, while drug crimes fell by 27%.
- Overall, crime rates are largely returning to pre-COVID levels as the nation distances itself from the height of the pandemic, but there are notable exceptions. While decreases in homicide in the study cities (and many other cities) are promising, the progress is uneven and other sources of crime information, including household surveys of violent victimization, indicate higher rates and more pronounced shifts than reports to law enforcement agencies.
- The variance in trends now requires leaders to shift attention from broad national explanations to local factors. It is essential to identify what’s driving crime in local communities and what law enforcement and community interventions, as well as other efforts and forces, may be having impact.
- Even in cities where homicide has returned to pre-2020 levels, it is still intolerably high, with some 20,000 lives lost to intentional violence last year. Other trends, such as motor vehicle theft and carjacking, also merit significant attention. Motor vehicle theft, for instance, is considered a “keystone” crime because stolen vehicles are often used in the commission of a robbery, drive-by shooting, or other violent offense. For these reasons and to achieve long-term reductions, local, state, and federal governments, along with communities and industries, must invest in evidence-based crime prevention efforts.
When it comes to shoplifting, the research found:
- Shoplifting is a theft by someone other than an employee of the victim of an item displayed for sale. Data from 25 cities show that reported shoplifting abruptly declined during the onset of the pandemic, and it continued to drop through June 2020. The shoplifting rate was 2% lower in 2023 compared to 2019. The rate jumped upward by 22% from 2022 to 2023, representing 14,743 additional incidents in the study cities. Compared to the same period in 2022, reported shoplifting increased by 18% in the first half of 2023 and by 26% in the second half of the year. Because these data rely on incidents reported to police, and because reporting practices vary across the retail industry, they almost certainly undercount total shoplifting by significant quantities.
Survey: AI Continues to Resonate with Consumers
https://chainstoreage.com/survey-ai-continues-resonate-consumers
Switching topics, let us go to Chain Store Age which reported on how AI continues to resonate with consumers. As they reported:
According to a new survey from Intellias of 1,000 shoppers, a third (33%) of those surveyed consumers already use Generative AI (GenAI) tools, such as ChatGPT, in their day-to-day lives. The number increases to 60% of Millennials and 49% of Gen Z.
A sizeable number (41%) of U.S. shoppers are aware of retailers using AI in their buying journeys. Nearly half (44%) said AI helps retailers and brands create more personalized shopping experiences, rising to 68% of Millennials and 59% of Gen Z.
According to consumers, the top five areas where AI can deliver the most value are:
- Pricing and promotions -28%
- Loyalty - real-time personalized rewards – 23%
- Product discovery when searching online – 23%
- Product validation – 19%
- Product recommendations personalized by AI - 19%
Despite increased adoption of AI both from consumers and retailers, 44% of consumers polled said that they are mistrustful of brands and retailers using AI in their shopping experiences. Two-thirds (66%) are concerned about how their data is used after an AI interaction during their shopping journey, and 65% said they are concerned that retailers and brands hadn’t put in place sufficient compliance/data safety procedures when using AI.
Still, a majority (57%) said they didn’t mind retailers using AI in their buying journeys as long as they were transparent about it, rising to 66% of Millennials. Nearly half (46%) felt that as long as they had a good experience with a retailer or brand, they didn’t mind if it involved AI or not.
Top Ten Countries Leading the AI Race
https://dailyinfographic.com/the-top-10-countries-leading-the-ai-race
Finally, from Daily Infographic here are the top 10 countries with the most startups focusing on AI between the years 2013 to 2022.
- USA
- China
- UK
- Israel
- Canada
- France
- India
- Japan
- Germany
- Singapore
USA dominates with 3.5X the number of starts versus number 1 China. $249 billion dollars was invested in USA AI startups between 2013 and 2022. In China, the amount was 95 billion dollars.
