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Loss Prevention Research Council Weekly Series Episode 137 - Valentine fun facts and New ATF Gun Crime Report

With Dr. Read Hayes, Tony D'Onofrio, and Tom Meehan

Loss Prevention Research Council Weekly Series Episode 137 - Valentine fun facts and New ATF Gun Crime Report
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More unidentified objects shot down over US and Canada. US government was tracking ballon from take off, and train derailments. 

50 bits of Valentine’s Day trivia you probably didn’t know

https://www.womansday.com/relationships/a4702/10-fun-valentines-day-facts-103385/

First want to wish everyone a Happy Valentine Day and let me start this week with some fun facts about the Holiday of Valentine Day.

  • Two theories on its origin and both go back to the Romans. First theory, the holiday is derived from Lupercalia, a raucous Roman festival inspired to increase fertility. Second theory, it is the day St. Valentine was executed by Roman Emperor Claudius II for conducting secret marriages.
  • The first known official celebration of Saint Valentine Day took place in Paris on February 14, 1400 when King Charles VI established the High Court of Love.
  • The oldest record of a Valentine was a poem from the Duke of Orleans to his wife who was imprisoned in the Tower of London in 1415. Good to hear is that teachers are the biggest receives of Valentines.
  • In 1537, England’s King Henry VIII officially declared February as the holiday of St Valentine’s Day by royal charter. He is the two who had six wives including two that he had beheaded.
  • St Valentine’s Day is a good day for retail. In USA according to NRF, Americans spend nearly $24 billion dollars in 2022, the second highest on record. The record was in 2020 when $27.4 billion dollars was spent.

2023 Inflation Forecasts by Country

https://www.visualcapitalist.com/mapped-2023-inflation-forecasts-by-country/

Switching topics from Visual Capitalist here are the latest projections for inflation in key countries.

While the International Monetary Fund predicts that global inflation peaked in late 2022, rates in 2023 are expected to remain higher than usual in many parts of the world. Following the 8.8% global inflation rate in 2022, the IMF forecasts a 6.6% rate for 2023 and 4.3% rate for 2024 based on their most recent January 2023 update.

For key countries, here are the projected rates of inflation for 2023:

  • United States 3.5%
  • Canada 4.2%
  • Mexico 6.3%
  • Brazil 4.7%
  • UK 9%
  • France 4.6%
  • Spain 4.9%
  • Italy 5.2%
  • Germany 7.2%
  • China 2.2%
  • Japan 1.4%

Tough news for some countries like UK at 9% and good news for many parts of the world especially in Asia.

Dollar Tree Survey: Most consumers plan to spend the same or more in 2023

https://chainstoreage.com/dollar-tree-survey-most-consumers-plan-spend-same-or-more-2023

Switching topics again, some good news from a survey published in Chain Store Age.

Americans aren’t letting inflation and the potential of a recession crimp their spending.

67% of Americans said they plan to spend either the same or more in 2023 as they did last year on retail purchases, according to a survey commissioned by on-demand pay solution DailyPay and Dollar Tree.  And 44% are more likely to prioritize shopping for bargains in-store this year compared to last.

Signaling a continued increase in in-person shopping, about three out of four Americans (73%) plan on shopping the same or more in-store in 2023 versus last year. 

The survey also revealed Americans' preferences regarding buying particular items in-store versus online:

  • 81% in-store for furniture;
  • 69% in-store for home goods;
  • 65% in-store for apparel;
  • 65% in-store for sporting goods; and
  • 59% in-store for electronics.

Good news for stores and retail industry in general

6 major takeaways from the ATF’s first report in 20 years on US gun crime

https://www.ideastream.org/npr-news/2023-02-10/6-major-takeaways-from-the-atfs-first-report-in-20-years-on-u-s-gun-crime

On a more serious note, from idea stream public media and NPR, here are 6 major takeaways from the ATF’s first report in 20 years on US gun crime.

  1. Legally purchased firearms are being used in crimes sooner than ever. The ATF found that 54% of traced crime guns were recovered by law enforcementmore than three years after their purchase. Those guns werelegally purchased, but were later used in crimes.
  2. More than 1 million guns were stolen from private owners from 2017 to 2021. Roughly 4.6 million children live in a home with loaded and unlocked firearms, studies have shown.
  3. Ghost guns remain difficult to track an are increasingly used in crimes. The number of suspected ghost guns recovered by law enforcement agencies and sent to the ATF for tracing and tracking "increased by 1,083% from 2017 to 2021.
  4. In 5 years, the number of illegal machine gun conversion devices recovered by law enforcement agencies has jumped 570%.
  5. Pistols represented nearly 70% of the crime guns traced between 2017 and 2021.
  6. There is a lot of data, but it is still limited. In 2021, only 47.2% of law enforcement agencies were participating in ATF's eTrace program, which tracks firearms used in crimes. And as of 2021, there were only 259 cities with National Integrated Ballistic Information Network sites (which analyzes ballistic information).