Loss Prevention Research Council Weekly Series Episode 131 - Retail Crimes, Rising Returns, and Cost of the 12 days of Christmas
With Dr. Read Hayes, Tony D'Onofrio, and Tom Meehan
As Walmart CEO warns of crime’s wave impact on retail, reports show how thieves brazenly rip off stores
https://www.foxnews.com/us/as-walmart-ceo-warns-crime-waves-impact-retail-reports-show-how-thieves-brazenly-rip-off-stores
Let me start this week with a report from Fox News on comments from Walmart’s CEO on retail crime.
"Theft is an issue. It’s higher than what it has historically been," Walmart CEO Doug McMillon told CNBC’s "Squawk Box" earlier this month. He added that if the crime wave is not halted soon and if prosecutors don't bring charges against shoplifters, "prices will be higher, and/or stores will close."
Crime has weighed heavily on retailers across the country this year, ballooning to a $100 billion problem, the National Retail Federation reported earlier this year. Walmart competitor Target reported this year that shoplifting incidents have increased 50% year over year, causing $400 million in losses.
Some criminals, however, have gotten even more creative and bolder than shoplifting just a few items in well-known and relied upon stores such as Walmart, reports show.
This month, a pair of Pennsylvania residents were busted by police for participating in a multi-state Walmart crime spree that has left the store with at least $25,000 in losses.
Police were called to a Walmart location in Clearfield, Pennsylvania, on Dec. 5 and arrested 37-year-old Tammi Koch, who is accused of repeatedly filling shopping carts with items ranging from baby clothes to computer accessories and brazenly walking out the doors of the stores. Police also arrested 21-year-old John Setser in the scheme, and authorities say there are other suspects in the case.
Koch would allegedly fill a shopping cart with goods, then pass the cart off to Sester in the self-checkout line to subvert security at the stores and then simply walk out with the merchandise.
In another case last month, a couple managed to confuse a Walmart cashier and stole more than $6,000 in merchandise and gift cards, according to authorities. They allegedly went to the checkout line with a cart full of expensive merchandise, and tricked the cashier into believing they paid by using multiple credit cards and then asked the cashier to use the "cash" button to ostensibly make a credit card work. The sale was then rung up as a cash payment so that no card was charged.
In Texas, a man described as a "magician" by local police managed to steal $2,700 from Walmart cashiers with "a quick-change scheme" in two separate incidents in January and February.
San Francisco police secretly stake out retail stores, pharmacies to curb rampant shoplifting
https://www.foxnews.com/us/san-francisco-police-secretly-stake-out-retail-stores-pharmacies-curb-rampant-shoplifting
Continuing from more insights just published in Fox News, some interesting information on what is being done in San Francisco to combat retail crime.
San Francisco police have been staking out retail and grocery stores to catch shoplifters and have arrested 60 people since the covert operation launched last month, officials said.
Details of the operation are slim, but police said that officers have been deployed to monitor pharmacies, grocery stores and retail stores across the city. The stores include Walgreens, Old Navy, Target, Whole Foods, CVS and Macy’s, the Chronicle reported.
"These operations have resulted in 13 felony bookings, over 47 misdemeanor citations, and they will continue," SFPD said in a statement.
Roughly half of the 60 arrested suspects were offered diversion, while the other half are facing prosecution ranging from commercial shoplifting to grand theft. The operation will last at least another month.
2022 Retail Returns Rate Remains Flat at $816 Billion
https://nrf.com/media-center/press-releases/2022-retail-returns-rate-remains-flat-816-billion
Finally, a new report from NRF and Appriss Retail on retail returns.
Consumers are expected to return more than $816 billion worth of retail merchandise purchased in 2022, according to a report released today by the National Retail Federation and Appriss Retail. As retail sales continue to grow, the average rate of return has remained flat at 16.5% compared with 16.6% in 2021.
According to the retail survey, for every $1 billion in sales, the average retailer incurs $165 million in merchandise returns. Additionally, it found that for every $100 in returned merchandise accepted, retailers lose $10.40 to return fraud.
Of the types of return fraud retailers say they have experienced in the past year, half (50%) cited returns of used, non-defective merchandise, also known as wardrobing, and 41.4% cited the return of shoplifted or stolen merchandise. One-fifth (20%) attributed return fraud to organized retail crime.
For the first time since online data has been captured as part of the survey in 2019, online return rates are consistent with the overall rate of return. Online return rates decreased from 20.8% in 2021 to 16.5% in 2022. Online sales will account for approximately $1.29 trillion of total U.S. retail sales in 2022. Of the approximately $212 billion of returned online purchases, $22.8 billion (10.7%) will be deemed fraudulent.
Of the more than $3.66 trillion in expected in-store sales, $603 billion will be returned. Approximately $62.1 billion of those returns, or 10.3%, are expected to be fraudulent.
In terms of holiday sales, retailers can expect to see an average of 17.9% of merchandise returned, equating to nearly $171 billion. Because of the increased sales volume during this time of year, nearly 44% of survey respondents indicated they planned to hire more staff to handle returns during the holiday season. Of that, most (71%) intend to add staff specifically for stores.
What the 12 Day of Christmas will cost you with 2022’s inflation
https://www.mytwintiers.com/news-header/economy/what-the-12-days-of-christmas-will-cost-you-with-2022s-inflation/
Finally, with all this inflation around, what do you think it has done to the cost of all those holiday gifts in the song the 12 days of Christmas. For the answer let’s turn to my twintiers.com.
PNC Bank, based in Pittsburgh, released its annual “Christmas Price Index“, adding up the twelve items from the partridge to the drummers. All in all, the total price of one set of each item is up more than 10% from last year.
By far, the cheapest items on the list are the milkmaids, with PNC using the $7.25 federal minimum wage as the cost of their hire. However, other human-based gifts cost well over $10,000.
With so many animals on the list, PNC said higher feed costs are a huge part of the price hike this year. Plus, the price of gold rings spiked 40% in 2022, the highest increase of any item on the list.
The full list of items, with the percentage increase from 2021, is below:
- Partridge in a pear tree: $280.18 (+25.8%)
- Two turtledoves: $600 (+33.3%)
- Three french hens: $318.75 (+25%)
- Four calling birds: $599.96 (0.0%)
- Five gold rings: $1,245 (+39.1%)
- Six geese-a-laying: $720 (+9.1%)
- Seven swans-a-swimming: $13,124.93 (+0.0%)
- Eight maids-a-milking: $58 (0.0%)
- Nine ladies dancing: $8,308.12 (+10%)
- Ten lords-a-leaping: $13,980 (+24.2%)
- Eleven Pipers Piping: $3,021.40 (+2.6%)
- Twelve Drummers Drumming: $3,266.93 (+2.6%)
Grand Total: $45,523.27 (+10.5%)
