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Loss Prevention Research Council Weekly Series - Episode 120 - Retail Violence and USA Holiday Sales Predictions

With Dr. Read Hayes, Tony D'Onofrio, and Tom Meehan

Loss Prevention Research Council Weekly Series - Episode 120 - Retail Violence and USA Holiday Sales Predictions
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Let me start this week with a summary of the latest shrink data that I shared in the just completed popular webinar series on the “disruptive future of retail” with the Loss Prevention Foundation.

From a 2021 RILA Study:

  • Nearly $69 billion of products were stolen pre-COVID-19 in 2019
  • USA retail crime results in nearly $126 billion in lost economic activity and over 650,000 fewer jobs paying over $39 billion in wages and benefits to workers
  • Retail theft cost federal and state governments nearly $15 billion in personal and business tax revenues, not including the lost sales taxes
  • Nearly 67% of asset protection managers report a moderate to considerable ORC increase with 80% believing it will get worse in the future.
  • Growth in online marketplaces is highly correlated at 61% to the number of shoplifting events reported each year and the categories most subject to shoplifting activities are the ones most sought after through online marketplaces.

According the to the NRF 2021 Security Survey, the top 5 stolen specific items stolen by ORC gangs are:

  1. Designer clothes -34%
  2. Laundry Detergent – 21%
  3. Razors – 20%
  4. Designer handbags – 16%
  5. Deodorant – 15%

According to the National Association of Shoplifting Prevention,

  • Majority of retail theft is caused by adults with 75% aged 18+
  • Nearly 55% of all shoplifters began stealing as teenagers
  • Only one out of every 100 shoplifters are caught
  • Nearly 48% of shoplifters are repeat offenders
  • USA has 27 million known shoplifters but only 3% are professionals
  • 72% of kids and 73% of adults say they decision to steal was made while in the store. In other words, it was not premeditated the majority of the time.

For every $330 worth of products stolen, a retailer needs to sell an incremental $300,000 worth of products to break even.

For every $1 recovered, nearly $12 dollars is lost to retail theft, meaning that roughly 8% of total theft losses ever results in a recovery.

Q1 2022 D&D Retail Violence Report

http://d-ddaily.com/archivesdaily/2022-Q1-Fatalities-Report.htm

From D&D, let me now transition to the latest data on retail violence just published which covers the first quarter of 2022.

  • Since D&D started tracking the data in 2016, retail fatalities have been up every single year. In total, retail fatalities are up 63% since 2016.
  • Comparing quarter to quarter to the previous year, for Q1/2022 vs Q1/2021, retail fatalities are up 9% and violent incidents are up 16%.
  • In Q1/2022, USA retail had 163 fatalities. 13% of the fatalities were suspects which was down 33%, 54% were customer which was up 13%, 28% were store associates which were up a dramatic 32%, and 5% were law enforcement, loss prevention, or security personnel which was up a dramatic again 100%.
  • For Q1/2022, 49% of the fatalities were in parking lots, 48% were inside the store or mall, and 3% were off premises.
  • Of the 45 store associates killed in Q1/2022, 87% died during the commission of crime, 7% from workplace violence, 4% were accidental, and 2% were from domestic violence.
  • 80% of the store associates fatalities were males and 20% were females.
  • 89% of the store associates were killed by a gun, 5% from stabbing, 5% from car crashed,, and 1% from fire.
  • Restaurants led as the top segment with fatalities in Q1/2022 with 29% of the total. Specialty stores followed at 8%, gas stations were third at 7%, and liquor / marijuana stores also at 7%.
  • The top 3 days of the week for retail fatalities were Sunday (20%), Friday, at 17%, and Monday at 16%.
  • The top 3 USA states with highest retail fatalities were Texas, California, and Pennsylvania.
  • The top 3 USA cities for fatalities were Philadelphia, Houston, and Memphis.

Mastercard Spending Pulse: USA retail sales expected to grow 7.1% this holiday season

https://www.mastercard.com/news/press/2022/september/mastercard-spendingpulse-u-s-retail-sales-expected-to-grow-7-1-this-holiday-season/

Finally, just saw one of the first forecasts for this holiday season in the United States from Mastercard Spending Pulse.

This holiday season, U.S. retail sales excluding automotive are expected to increase 7.1% year over year, according to the Mastercard SpendingPulse™ annual holiday forecast. Mastercard SpendingPulse measures in-store and online retail sales across all forms of payment. It is not adjusted for inflation.

Last Year, the 2021 holiday season was resurgent for retailers (up +8.5%) as pandemic-induced pent-up demand, excess savings and supply chain issues sent shoppers stocking their carts to secure gifts. This year, the holidays are expected to shape up to be yet another positive retail season.

Key trends to watch this year:

  • Extended holiday shopping:With holiday shopping slated to begin early again this year, some of the season’s retail growth is expected to be pulled forward in October as consumers hunt for early deals.
  • ‘Tis the season of savings: As inflation impacts consumer wallets, bargain hunting is expected to be in full force this holiday season.
  • In-store experiences draw shoppers to stores:From the return of holiday doorbusters to new brick-and-mortar collaborations, retailers are aiming to boost holiday spirits by driving consumers into stores.
  • Fashion-forward gifting:Following nearly two years of loungewear and athleisure, consumers may be adding revamped wardrobes to their wish lists as social events and platforms have many dressing to impress.